“You have been brought here from all over the country for one reason. Stare fear in the eye as you compete for $50,000. To win the money, you have to complete three extreme stunts. Stunts not only test you physically, but mentally. If you are too afraid to attempt this stunt, you are eliminated.” Any…
Author: YH Wong
Bubble or boom?
If you are looking for something to spoil your weekend, here you go. Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham is back with another warning. This time, he argues that we may be witnessing the biggest market bubble in American history, led by the AI high flyers. In his view, a decline of as much as 70% in…
Time for a falling US dollar (25 years later)
My latest piece on the US dollar without all the technical jargon or complicated charts has just been published in The Armchair Trader newsletter. Established in 2010, The Armchair Trader is a UK-based financial publication known for its independent commentary on global markets, covering stocks, commodities, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, and derivatives. Here is a section: Come…
The sophisticated investor who wanted out
Every advisor has a story like this. A sophisticated investor. A well-constructed portfolio. Then the market decides to test everyone’s conviction at the same time. This happened during the 2020–2022 period. The portfolio was structured as a diversified trade. One side held high-conviction allocations to equities. The other was an alternative fund designed to reduce…
Less writing, more conversations
Blog posts will be a little lighter over the next couple of days as I will be catching up with clients and friends who are in town from different parts of the region. Face-to-face conversations are still one of the best ways to exchange ideas, challenge assumptions, and hear what people are really thinking about…
Why nobody calls about the winners
Nobody likes losing money. In investing, losses come with the job even when you follow the same process that made you money the last time. The trick is not avoiding every drawdown. It is not panicking when one inevitably shows up. I sat down with some new partners recently and pulled up a real client…
More than just a children’s movie
I brought my family to watch Toy Story 5 earlier today. Like most Pixar movies, it was entertaining enough for the children while quietly slipping a message to the adults. The theme that stood out to me was how much time modern families spend on screens and gadgets. Children are often blamed for it, but…
Looking past the headlines
Over coffee this week, some friends and partners brought up the latest memorandum or peace deal between the US and Iran. As expected, opinions were plentiful and certainty was in short supply. “Oh really?” a partner remarked when the agreement was described as a major victory for Trump. Another had actually taken the trouble to…
Back to school
Kevin Warsh will do everything reasonably possible to avoid raising rates. That may sound odd given the overwhelmingly hawkish interpretation of this week’s FOMC meeting, but I came away with a different impression. Contrary to most (all?) of the FOMC summaries I read so far, I did not find Warsh’s press conference particularly hawkish. Warsh…
Is this what an earnings peak looks like?
I’m not the most active person on LinkedIn, more of a quiet observer who scrolls now and then. I do make new connections occasionally (selectively, of course). At the risk of upsetting some people, LinkedIn can sometimes feel like a stage where many are more interested in “showing off” than sharing real insights or adding…