A number of signals in my models are starting to turn, not dramatic, but enough to tell me markets are getting more challenging in the short term. On the surface, things still look fine. Wall Street pushed to new all-time highs in April, helped along by small caps and a solid Q1 earnings season. Yes,…

For most of 2025, the dollar looked expensive and tired. The American exceptionalism story had run its course, and the greenback was drifting lower against most major currencies, not collapsing just fading. So the real question is not complicated at all: is this another crisis-driven bounce that fades with the headlines, or does it have…