After the failed assassination attempt, is Donald Trump really going to “win”? Given the highly polarized nature of politics today, the answer is yes. However, for some people, it also depends on your definition of “win.” Ask any traders, and they will tell you the markets will continue to rise and fall regardless of who wins the election.
This article from The Financial Times is an interesting read for those who have been following the US Presidential election race.
Here is a section:
What would a Trump-Vance economic agenda look like? Donald Trump’s selection of JD Vance as his running mate cements the Republican party’s shift from the free-market conservatism of the Reagan and Bush eras to the economic populism of the Make America Great Again movement.
And if they win in November, the impact of the Trump-Vance economic agenda on everything from global trade to corporate taxes could be huge and unsettling for US business and allies. “People like JD Vance are just being realistic about the 21st-century global economy, it has different challenges than the challenges of Ronald Reagan’s economy,” said Nick Iacovella from the Coalition for a Prosperous America, a think-tank.
What will Maganomics actually do? More trade wars? Trump’s disdain of global commerce has become more pronounced since he left office, and is shared by Vance. The former president proposes a sweeping 10 per cent tariff on all imports, plus a 60 per cent levy on goods from China.
Trade tensions with European and Asian allies, and possibly even Canada, will flare up again, believe analysts. Trump also wants a weaker dollar to help boost exports, which could bring friction on currency policy with trading partners.
During his first term, Trump’s trade battles were blustery but erratic: he alternated threats and punitive measures with efforts to negotiate bilateral deals, including with China. He managed the domestic fallout by subsidising some victims of retaliatory counter-tariffs, including farmers in states such as Wisconsin the swing state hosting the Republican convention this week.
There were some divisions even within Trump’s own administration about how far to go on tariffs, as well as resistance from some Republicans on Capitol Hill.
The Republican party is these days much more aligned with Trump’s anti-globalisation views on trade, and has embraced his plans to crack down on immigration. US business will be wary of both stances, fearing a loss of foreign markets and immigrant workers. “The main thrust of the post-war American order of globalisation has involved relying more and more on cheaper labour.
“The trade issue and the immigration issue are two sides of the same coin,” Vance told The New York Times earlier this year. How far will the tax cuts go? Lowering taxes has been a pillar of Republican economics for decades. In 2017 a Republican Congress and Trump enacted a sweeping USD1.7tn package of corporate and individual tax cuts. They are set to expire next year, unless Trump makes them permanent.
He also wants to cut the corporate rate from the current level of 21 per cent. Democrats say the plan is another massive giveaway for the rich. So Republicans want to structure the package to be less brazenly beneficial to the wealthiest households and businesses.
Vance has expressed doubts about some of the tax cuts. “I don’t think this is going to be a straight extension, there will be some competing visions,” said Doug Holtz-Eakin, director of the American Action Forum, a right-leaning think-tank.