It was another “lively” coffee session with the team today. Well, a good mix of backgrounds, perspectives, and healthy debate. As always, it was not just about markets, but about strengthening relationships and sharpening thinking. We wrapped up in about an hour.
We know, we know, oil has been putting on its own version of a rollercoaster thanks to Donald Trump. Prices dropped below $100/bbl after a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran eased fears of prolonged supply disruption. Elsewhere, bond yields edged lower. The dollar weakened, and gold moved higher.
The proposed framework suggests a pause in US-Israeli military activity in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, potentially with Oman joining in to collect transit fees. Not quite a free pass, but who cares.
Where oil heads next depends on whether this evolves into something more durable. Until then, volatility will likely remain a feature, not a bug. I pray for lasting world peace.
After 30 years in this show business, you learn to filter signal from noise. More importantly, you realise the noise never really goes away, you just get better at ignoring it.
I reiterated my bullish outlook on US equities. Geopolitical tensions have done their usual job of compressing multiples and unsettling sentiment, but beneath all that, earnings remain resilient.
To be clear, I’m not calling the exact bottom. I’m certainly not suggesting markets move in straight lines because they never do, no matter how much we wish they would. What I am saying is this. The conditions for a meaningful buying opportunity are forming. Yes, some charts look terrible. They usually do at the interesting moments.