Ray Dalio is one of the brightest minds of our time, someone whose insights I follow closely. His decades of experience have given him a deep reservoir of knowledge, which I continually draw upon for learning and personal growth.
I came across another timely update from him in my email, a rather lengthy but thought-provoking piece.
Here is a section:
As history has shown, the most reliable indicator of which country is likely to win is not which is most powerful; it is which can endure the most pain the longest. That certainly is a factor in the US-Iran war, with the president assuring the American public that the war will be over in a couple of weeks, gas prices will then decline, and we will go back to our normal prosperous times.
There are many good indicators that point to whether a country has the capacity to endure the pain for an extended period of time, such as popularity polls (especially in democracies) and/or the power of government leaders to remain in control (especially in autocracies, where popular opinion does not matter as much).
In fighting wars, winning does not occur until surrender. That is because it is impossible to eliminate all enemies. When China entered the Korean War against the United States at a time when China had very little power and the United States was a nuclear power, Mao supposedly said, “They cannot kill us all,” meaning that the enemy cannot win if there are people who keep fighting. The lessons of Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan are clear.
Winning happens when the winning country can get out with the losing country no longer remaining a threat. While the United States appears to be the most powerful country in the world, it is also the most overextended major power and the weakest at withstanding pain over a long period of time.