6:00am: Another positive day began and I engaged in my customary early morning meditation program.
7:00am: Checked out a dozen of my favorite charts and run some numbers on my TM-IM models. I have been studying and leveraging market cycles for nearly 30 years. One purpose of my work is to share the trends my models are identifying and provide insight into what I’m doing for my investors and partners.
8:00am: In a number of emails, some of my clients expressed concerns over how this year’s US election will occur. While the S&P 500 has rallied strongly so far this year in line with my bullish expectation, one client pointed to a contested or prolonger result which could affect the markets.
The American promise is simple. This country is a beacon of hope. So, what kind of choice do the Americans have? I know both of them are getting a little old. I don’t think Biden is up to the job of being president for another four years.
Yeah, Trump has his millions of followers in a cult and if there is one thing he is really good at it is knowing his audience. As an investor and trader, I can accept Donald Trump as president, even though I would never appear on stage at his rallies.
8:30am: While having a healthy breakfast, picked up a weekly trading report by a partner. His thoughtful analysis of the latest market/economic trends and their potential impacts on various asset classes is essential reading. I share his view that the world is entering the second stage of the AI boom.
His volatility analysis on Nvidia has not surprised me at all. Year-to-date, Nvidia shares are up more than 150%, buoyed by a surge in data center revenue amid heavy spending on artificial intelligence. Incredible indeed.
How many days can it go up in straight line? A big part of the rally around Nvidia has been its 10-for-1 stock split. Splits are seen as a positive driver for the stock price, as it makes the stock more affordable for smaller investors.

9:30am: Working on my diary while looking at the trading monitor at the same time. Well, as the summer heats up, my schedule fills with meetings with partners over the next one week or so. They are traveling through this region where I live and work.
10:15am: How worry should we be? From a few emails, I was not surprised that some people are upset with how the Prime Minister and his cabinet ministers are handling various economic issues and there is no denying that the country finds itself at a critical juncture, facing long-term economic challenges.
Certainly, the state of the local economy poses significant challenges for our country, right? Not necessarily, depending on where you sit. I don’t think some politicians are capable of wrapping their minds around the implications of a worst-case going forward.
Damn it! Kicking the can down the road during good or normal times has the potential for devastating impacts if a crisis hits. If I were to lead the country, I would ensure that quality education is accessible to everyone, irrespective of their race or religion.
10:40am: Time for a pop quiz from a partner. What was the biggest market moving headline from the past 24 hours? Here you go! The Japanese Yen dropped to ¥160.8 to the dollar, the weakest since 1986. Since June 2020, the Yen has plunged by 34% against the greenback. I see the Yen at risk of falling further.
Certainly, tourism is now booming in Japan, attracting budget travellers from around the world. I have heard it is now cheaper to travel to Japan for a holiday than to Singapore.
Still on forex, the relationship between interest rate expectations and the forex levels is more complicated than many textbooks or conventional wisdom allows.

11:35pm: Back to the trading screens and found nothing that would wake me up in the middle of the night. To buy or not to buy. For contrarian investors, Chinese stocks may be at a generational buy point. On the other hand, geopolitical tensions and economic challenges suggest a cautious, incremental investment approach.
Depending on your time horizon, China stands out for its value and earnings growth, which I believe will ultimately provide the most sustainable and attractive risk-adjusted returns.
12:20pm: Enjoyed a brief lunch at a nearby vegetarian restaurant, savoring the fresh and flavorful dishes they had to offer.
1:20pm: I emailed the latest performance data for certain positions to some investors. I could not complete this task earlier because of delays in receiving specific numbers from the dealing team.
With the first half of 2024 almost behind us, I have also asked my team to provide me a snapshot of asset class performance across the financial landscape.
2:05pm: In a short meeting with a few people, I emphasized that not much has changed regarding the Fed and rates in the macro scene. Chairman Powell is being “quiet” when it comes to talking about what the Fed is going to do with its policy rate of interest. Historically the Fed have tended to abstain from adjusting policy from Labor Day through the election.
3:00pm: A good friend once advised me to make outrageous remarks to attract attention. However, making sensational headlines has never been my goal. Personally, I aim for investors to stay focused and not let emotions distract them from their investment strategies. So my presentation for a group of investors tomorrow will be “dull” as usual.
3:37pm: Was running the performance of a basket of alternative investments that have consistently met my expectations. These investments have the ability to capture upside potential while limiting or avoiding downside risk.
As my coach used to say in martial arts training, nobody can block all the punches and kicks. To cut a long story short, alternatives enhance portfolio diversification.
On another glittering note, gold has performed remarkably well so far in 2024. The yellow metal has thus far benefitted from continued central bank buying, investment flows, resilient consumer demand, a steady drumbeat of geopolitical uncertainty and blah, blah and blah.
We hold a long-term exposure to the yellow metal for some positions via an ETF which tracks the price of physical gold with 0.40% annual management fees.

4:00pm: Is crypto an investable asset class? Some smart people did not think so in a meeting with a group of financial advisors. The common issue for investors is how it is valued, which depends on a variety of factors. Does anyone knows that at USD2.32 trillion, cryptocurrencies remain a small asset class compared to stocks, bonds, currencies, and the leading commodity markets.
Most financial advisors do not do extensive analysis. I do not want to sound critical but let us just pretend. They crunch numbers and appear busy, but ultimately, they rely heavily on what everyone is talking about in the mainstream media. Perception does not always match reality.
“Do not try this at home.” For anyone eagers to engage in this dynamic space, the most secure investment approach, from both a regulatory standpoint and an investment diversification strategy, is to invest through a specialized, regulated fund that possesses the requisite infrastructure.
5:15pm: In a long email to a client, I recommended monitoring the value of the US dollar as it can offer valuable insights into global economic trends. Although recognizing the potential challenges faced by the US economy, global investors often view it as a comparatively lower-risk option compared to other countries. This perspective sheds significant light on the broader economic landscape.

5:35pm: I replied to a partner in a short message that while global hotspots (geopolitical tension) often dominate headlines, investors must maintain a balanced perspective to avoid overlooking potentially robust performance in markets on our radar.
6:00pm: I paused to engage in my regular meditation practice.
7:25pm: Finished reading a paper on endowment asset allocations. It underscores the critical role of asset allocation in portfolio performance and discusses the changing significance of various asset classes over time.
7:30pm: Okay, another terrific day. Vowed not to work from home after dinner. Oh really? Such is the price of working in our show business driven by the ups and downs in markets. Does anybody want my job?