I have my own opinions about Donald Trump but those don’t matter at all in terms of what is most likely to happen moving forward. He is a cult leader. If you have ever been to or near a Trump rally, you would certainly notice the cult-like aspects of it.
If you are a dedicated Trump voter, it wouldn’t matter if Biden wrote you a check for a million dollars or give you a comfortable life. You would still believe Trump would run the economy better than Biden. Who cares about inflation or bank accounts. That is how cults work.
Reports of Trump’s political demise were premature. You may love him or hate him but you can’t ignore him. I will not worry too much about the possible return of Trump although he could split the world into anything. I’m not suggesting that Trump’s any sort of hero nor that he has done something good for the country or world.
A return of Trump to the White House would be good for certain markets. The past market patterns suggest that the return of Trump could significantly favor certain alternative investment strategies on my TM-IM radar.
This article from Reuters may be of interest to some of you whether you like him or not. Here is a section:
Investors are bracing for the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House after Super Tuesday confirmed that the November US election is set to pitch him against incumbent Joe Biden.
Any ratcheting up in trade tensions between the US and other big economies could shake up world equity markets, now trading near record highs. EU policymakers are concerned Trump could re-impose tariffs on imports of European steel and aluminum suspended by Biden or turn his attention to cars or EU curbs on US big tech.
Trump says he would consider 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, a move Capital Economics estimates together with stricter tariff enforcement could lop as much as 0.7% off China’s GDP.
During his last presidency, Trump imposed tariffs on USD200 billion of Chinese goods. They remained in place under Biden. Bilateral trade initially declined, but picked up during the COVID-19 pandemic surge in US demand for electronics, hitting a record high in 2022 of $690.6 billion. It has since slowed due to the impact of tariffs and tensions ratcheted up by the Ukraine war.
“There is a lot of bad news discounted in China but nothing like that,” said State Street’s head of macro strategy Michael Metcalfe, referring to 60% tariffs on China. China’s Yuan and equities, hurt by its stuttering economy, could suffer.