My latest piece on gold (without all the technical jargon and charts) just went live in The Armchair Trader newsletter, one of my favourite reads in the space, and one of the few that manages to write for both retail readers and serious investors without dumbing either one down.
That is harder than it sounds. Most market commentary today has the shelf life of a tweet. By the time you have finished reading, the crowd has already moved on to the next macro panic and nobody remembers what the last one was even about.
Established in 2010, The Armchair Trader is a website offering independent financial market analysis, often featuring insights into stocks, commodities, and derivatives.
Here is a section:
Conventional wisdom says geopolitical tensions should be good for gold. This time, not so much. It was a reminder that geopolitical risk often takes a back seat when global liquidity tightens. Not too long ago, the BofA fund manager survey had flagged “long gold” as the most crowded trade for the second month running. Nearly half of all fund managers on the same side of the boat.
That is the problem right there. When you replace human judgement with trend-chasing, then add retail investors piling into something they barely understand, you end up with positioning that is one-sided. One-sided boats tip.
Gold, like the US dollar, gets people emotional. When things are good, we enjoy the ride but quietly worry it cannot last. When things turn, we fear the worst while hoping for a bounce. Markets have a way of testing your conviction and your patience at the same time.