I’m not the most active person on LinkedIn, more of a quiet observer who scrolls now and then. I do make new connections occasionally (selectively, of course). At the risk of upsetting some people, LinkedIn can sometimes feel like a stage where many are more interested in “showing off” than sharing real insights or adding value.
One person I always make a point to follow is Denise Chisholm. Her insights are consistently outstanding, often making me pause, think, and challenge my own views. Here is another timely update from her.
Here is a section with the charts as usual:
Of course, the immediate objection is that this cycle may be different. Uncertainty remains elevated. We do not know where oil prices will settle, and we do not know how trade policy will ultimately evolve. Both have disrupted economic activity in prior cycles.
Could those factors interrupt the virtuous cycle we are describing? Certainly. But are they so likely that investors should position against growth altogether? History would suggest otherwise.
Measures of business uncertainty remain high, particularly among small businesses, yet periods of elevated uncertainty have often been followed by stronger job growth and earnings growth than periods of relative calm. That is not because uncertainty is inherently positive, nor because investors should hope for more of it.
Rather, it reflects the extraordinary capacity of US businesses to adapt, adjust, and ultimately move forward despite whatever challenge dominates the headlines at the moment. Perhaps that is why “resilient” remains the most appropriate description of the economy.
After everything it has absorbed over the last several years, it continues to expand. And if the leading indicators are correct, now may be a time to lean into that resilience rather than bet against it.
