Yesterday was a busy one with back-to-back meetings with investors and partners. We covered just about everything under the sun. Well, the battle for the Fed, Powell’s next move, Wall Street’s mood swings with my favorite benchmark once again hugging its all-time high, gold’s shine, and of course, the US dollar. Oh yeah, equity investors, for better or worse, have tuned out Trump’s endless tariff threats.
By hook or by crook, the Trump administration is determined to drive the funds rate sharply lower and fast. Meanwhile, Trump made good on his threat to fire Lisa Cook from the Fed Board in connection with allegations of mortgage fraud.
Someone should remind President Trump that firing a Fed governor for anything short of a grievous offense could be risky business not exactly the sequel some investors want to see. So what?
At this pace, the only thing we did not discuss was the weather though given how unpredictable markets are, it might deserve a Bloomberg ticker too.
If you have been around as long as I have, you have seen this play before. The cast may change but the script is remarkably familiar. While many insist, “this time it’s different,” that line remains one of the most infamous in market history, a phrase I have now heard in multiple remakes over the past three decades.
Markets are not stupid even if they are occasionally irrational. You sell when prices are rallying, and buy when prices are falling. Yes, simple on paper but difficult in practice.