The year-end season is officially here, which means my reading list has been taken over by all the blockbuster reports on the global economy and market outlook for 2026. The kind of reports that arrive thick, confident, and armed with enough charts to make your coffee or tea go cold before page ten.
Every major institution has an opinion, a forecast, and a neatly packaged narrative about what the world should look like in 2026. Reading them is part of the discipline, understanding how consensus is formed, where risks are being underestimated and which assumptions are being taken for granted.
That said, I will leave the grand predictions and dramatic headlines to those reports. As usual, I will produce my own outlook in our annual letter, our small ritual where noise is filtered out, probabilities matter more than certainty and experience counts just a little more than confidence.
As part of that process, I will also review the year’s hits and misses, what worked, what did not and more importantly, what we learned from both. In addition, some clients with specific mandates will receive special, more tailored reports, less one-size-fits-all, more “this actually applies to your portfolio.”
Less forecasting theatre, more positioning for what can happen.
Coming soon.