I’m back from a short break. Well, over a few hearty meals and more coffee and tea than I would like to admit, I found myself in deep conversation with my partners, the kind of exchange where ideas bounce, opinions clash (politely), and laughter sneaks in between market talk.
It is always refreshing to be reminded that in investing, as in cooking, the best results often come from mixing different ingredients. More brains really are better than one and the power of partnership lies in the way it challenges and refines our thinking.
One of the big themes that surfaced was the role of long-term US Treasuries. They still earn their place as a classic diversifier and deflation hedge, but in a world of higher rates, they are no longer the easy comfort food they once were. Managing duration exposure has become far more critical, especially with real returns looking a little lean.
The conversation then drifted to the US dollar, still dominant on the global stage but, as one partner joked, perhaps “a bit overvalued and overdue for a nap”. True dedollarization remains more theory than reality.
Looking out to 2026, another partner was cautiously optimistic. The US economy continues to show resilience even as services inflation proves sticky, and the early signs of a global easing cycle are emerging. In this environment, diversification remains essential since US equities still look expensive and real yields unusually high.
We also found ourselves debating how tariffs, AI spending, and policy uncertainty are reshaping the global landscape as 2025 winds down gradually. High-quality bonds are finally back in fashion as central banks edge toward easing.
By the end of it all, between insights and indulgences, one truth stood out clearly, no single mind can capture the full picture. A few sharp ones around a dinner table can come pretty close.