Everyone supposedly dumping greenbacks for euros, gold, or crypto. This year’s headlines have hammered home the idea that foreign investors, spooked by President Trump’s unorthodox, populist streak were heading for the exits and redeploying capital elsewhere.
However, the numbers did not get the memo. According to a report, Treasury International Capital (TIC) data released showed foreign investors snapped up a net USD192 billion in US securities in June. That came on the heels of a record USD326 billion in May fueled by the single largest private-sector inflow on record.
Even after accounting for US investors’ own purchases of foreign assets, the adjusted net flow of long-term capital into US securities was still a healthy USD151 billion in June, bringing second-quarter net inflows to a record-matching USD410 billion.
Step back further, and the picture gets clearer. Net inflows in the first half of this year reached USD643 billion, putting 2025 on pace to rival the USD1.3 trillion record set in 2022. Over the 12 months through June, a net USD1.27 trillion found its way into US stocks, Treasuries, agencies, and corporate debt.
So while the story on the street may sound like a dollar obituary, the hard data still looks a lot more like a birthday party.
This will also be one of the topics I will be discussing with some investors next week, especially relevant given that most of our asset allocation is denominated in dollars. In my completely unbiased view, I believe the dollar remains in a long-term bull trend.
