I’m doing my best to get better every day. Well, I have been reading more half-yearly economic and market reports than summer blockbusters. Frankly, some of these reports have just as much suspense, drama, and unexpected plot twists though with fewer explosions and better charts.
Despite a steady drumbeat of geopolitical tension, looming tariff cliffs, and headline anxiety, the markets seem to be telling a very different story. The widely-watched S&P 500 notched fresh all-time highs. Bitcoin broke out of its range.
Even the US dollar, after months of jittery moves, seems to be stabilizing amid increasingly unpredictable US policymaking. I know, I know, the latest Big Beautiful bill will increase the deficit by trillions.
Retail investors, often cast as the clueless crowd have once again defied expectations. So far, they have been right to buy every dip. If they want to change their position, they can do so at the touch of a button. No investment committee meetings and no layers of approval. Just instinct, speed, and a mobile app.
I will be sitting down with some clients and partners to share my own views. These discussions are less about trying to predict the next twist and more about staying adaptable. It is tempting to want a clear narrative especially after reading dozens of glossy, data-packed outlooks.
So yes, I have been reading plenty of mid-year reviews lately. While they provide useful context, I have learned not to rely on them like gospel.