Oil was up. Gold was up. Treasuries were up. Stocks and crypto were down. If that feels familiar, it should. That is the classic knee-jerk response to conflict in the Middle East region, a textbook fear-based price action.
The hammer fell on Iran! Indeed, the last couple of days gave us another loud cycle of headlines. Cue the war drums, stealth bombers, oil shock stories, and the usual fear factory that keeps the financial news industry in our show business. It is enough to tempt even seasoned investors to toss out their playbook.
Nothing changed in our process. No emergency Zoom calls. No red-alert emails. Just another day at the (virtual) office. Yes, no panicky calls from investors either (bless you all).
Now, I’m far from perfect. I do not claim to have all the answers or some secret crystal ball. I have no idea what is going to happen next. Nobody knows what Trump is doing probably not even the man himself.
I stick to the process. Always. The TM-IM models that I have refined and trusted over the years did not suddenly forget how to work. The signal is always talking regardless of our emotions.