I’m not the most active person on LinkedIn, more of a quiet observer who scrolls now and then. I do make new connections occasionally (selectively, of course). At the risk of upsetting some people, LinkedIn can sometimes feel like a stage where many are more interested in “showing off” than sharing real insights or adding value.
One person I always make a point to follow is Denise Chisholm. Her insights are consistently outstanding, often making me pause, think, and challenge my own views. Her latest take on Bitcoin caught my attention.
Some of my models are currently invested in both technology stocks and cryptocurrencies, so it is always refreshing to hear thoughtful, data-driven perspectives that go beyond the hype. Also, I might do a little housekeeping on LinkedIn soon, time to quietly disconnect a few folks from my radar. Nothing personal, just trying to keep the feed aligned with what truly adds value.
Here is a section:
Bitcoin’s recent pop, up nearly 20% in the last month is catching attention. While bitcoin is volatile enough to make anyone cautious about drawing conclusions, sharp reversals often make investors ask the bigger questions: is this about inflation? The Fed? The Dollar? Gold? Or something bigger? As tempting as the existential interpretations are, we can learn a lot from recent history.
Over the last three years, the 6-month moves in bitcoin have had much stronger correlations with equities than with bonds, gold, or the dollar. So, while we cannot rule out bigger macro narratives, the data suggests bitcoin’s behavior has consistently been tied to risk appetite in the stock market. That makes this move more than just noise, it may be a flag for a shift in risk sentiment.
Its recent move has a track record of leading technology stocks. If bitcoin simply holds where it is, the three-month change will soon rank in the top quartile of moves over the past three years. Historically, when that has happened, tech stocks have gone on to outperform the market (on average) over the following six months.
It is another datapoint confirming what I wrote at the start of this newsletter: tech has quietly returned to a more attractive valuation zone; one we have not seen in over five years. Add bitcoin’s move to the growing list of signals suggesting tech’s risk/reward profile is shifting quietly but materially in investors favor. Like Ferris said, life moves pretty fast. Bitcoin might be telling you tech might, too.
