In 1985, Lee Kuan Yew stood before the US Congress and issued a calm but powerful warning not to bully Japan over trade tariffs. His message was simple yet profound that is choose free trade over protectionism, partnership over pressure, and long-term strategy over short-term politics.
Nearly 40 years later, the world still has not caught up with his clarity. As trade tensions simmer and global alliances shift, his words echo louder than ever. His wisdom was timeless. His foresight, unmatched.
Fast forward to today, and while the players and policies have changed, the game feels much the same only now it is louder, more chaotic, and all for “show”.
Last week made it fairly obvious to me that President Trump had reached his pain threshold for stock and bond market losses. Call it the “Trump put”, stocks have a floor just below a key level and bond yields started ringing alarm bells on the 10-year. I will be watching those levels closely and not the noise from Trump.
The 90-day “pause,” the Apple exemptions, and talk of auto tariff relief is a sign Trump blinked. Stocks rallied, Treasurys caught a bid, and the panic was put on hold (at least until the next tweet).
In my humble view, China is winning this trade war. Not in a flashy, chest-thumping kind of way but in the disciplined, and strategic way. China is playing a long game while the US often appears caught up in headline-driven, short-term maneuvers.
I have nothing against America or any other countries. The era of colonial-style posturing is over. No country regardless of its military strength or number of aircraft carriers has the right to bully others on the global stage. The battlefield today is economic, technological, and psychological.
I have been re-reading Sun Tzu’s Art of War lately to better understand how China is navigating this complex chessboard. It is not about theatrics. It is about patience. It is about positioning. Above all, it is about knowing when not to act. From where I stand, Beijing did not flinch because it did not need to.
Lee Kuan Yew once said, “China is not just another big player. It is the biggest player in the history of man.”