This morning, some of my colleagues and partners gathered for what can only be described as a lively market debate, part strategy session, part friendly intellectual brawl. With inflation, tariffs, and recession fears driving uncertainty, investors have increasingly shifted toward risk-off assets.
The consensus? If markets insist on staying dramatic, we might as well embrace the volatility preferably with popcorn and a solid risk management plan. With patience, rigorous analysis, and the guts to act when others hesitate, we see opportunities to build exposure to select positions as volatility plays out in the second quarter.
Liberation Day, April 2, is fast upon us. That is when the US is expected to impose more tariffs on imported goods but it is still not clear how broad and deep that will be. One partner expressed deep concerns that Trump’s reliance on 1930s-style tariffs is “killing” the US economy. While I do not expect tariffs to vanish entirely, I do believe they will be moderated in the coming months.
Another sharp mind in the room argued against excessive bearishness. She pointed out that while this correction may feel uncomfortable, it remains within normal market cycles suggesting that the bull market is likely to resume and target new all-time highs.
A colleague with expertise in quantitative models emphasized that all eyes should be on the bond market, as its signals will be critical in navigating the next phase of market movements. Meanwhile, we all expect only limited upside for gold in the coming months.
On the crypto front, I covered several DeFi tokens that remain largely overlooked given the market’s fixation on Bitcoin and meme coins. Elsewhere, the US dollar will likely continue to trade within a range against most major peers, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty. If tariffs could collapse the greenback as feared, the world would probably have bigger problems. It has survived worse and still wakes up every morning.
