If anyone claims they always buy at the bottom and sell at the top, they are either delusional, lying, or auditioning for a role in a finance infomercial. Even legends like Warren Buffett are not walking around with crystal balls. The reality is that markets are messy, unpredictable and far less cooperative than we would like.
Instead of chasing perfection, I focus on ranges and probabilities. It is less “buy low, sell high” and more “buy within this range and sell when the odds look favorable.” Maybe there is a 70% chance my trade will work out within my range and a 30% chance it will not but over time, those disciplined bets add up to real success.
Waiting for the absolute low or holding out for the absolute high? Sure, it might happen once in a lifetime but basing your entire strategy on it? Risky, to say the least. Instead, I work with what is realistic, buying when the odds are in my favor and selling at sensible exit points.
While markets are unpredictable, human behavior is remarkably consistent. People panic at the bottom and get greedy at the top ike clockwork. Knowing this, and having the discipline to act differently is what turns a good investor into a great one.
So, no, I’m not trying to time the market to perfection. I’m simply looking to tilt the odds in my favor, work within ranges, and embrace the fact that the market will always have its “moments”.