If you are looking for something to spoil your weekend, here you go. Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham is back with another warning. This time, he argues that we may be witnessing the biggest market bubble in American history, led by the AI high flyers. In his view, a decline of as much as 70% in…
Time for a falling US dollar (25 years later)
My latest piece on the US dollar without all the technical jargon or complicated charts has just been published in The Armchair Trader newsletter. Established in 2010, The Armchair Trader is a UK-based financial publication known for its independent commentary on global markets, covering stocks, commodities, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, and derivatives. Here is a section: Come…
The sophisticated investor who wanted out
Every advisor has a story like this. A sophisticated investor. A well-constructed portfolio. Then the market decides to test everyone’s conviction at the same time. This happened during the 2020–2022 period. The portfolio was structured as a pair trade. One side held high-conviction allocations to technology and China. The other was an alternative fund designed…
Less writing, more conversations
Blog posts will be a little lighter over the next couple of days as I will be catching up with clients and friends who are in town from different parts of the region. Face-to-face conversations are still one of the best ways to exchange ideas, challenge assumptions, and hear what people are really thinking about…
Why nobody calls about the winners
Nobody likes losing money. In investing, losses come with the job even when you follow the same process that made you money the last time. The trick is not avoiding every drawdown. It is not panicking when one inevitably shows up. I sat down with some new partners recently and pulled up a real client…