I recently met up with a long-term client who has since become a business partner. From where he is based in Singapore, the economy where I’m based appears healthy. Well, GDP growth looks strong and the local currency has firmed up against the US dollar. On the surface, the numbers seem to support that view….

Just earlier today, a well-mannered Grab driver picked up some documents from me for delivery to a partner. He looked tired, probably had been on the road the entire day but he was polite, focused, and professional. As he drove off, it brought back a memory from more than 30 years ago. While waiting for…

Markets were jolted late after news broke that the US Department of Justice had served grand jury subpoenas to the Federal Reserve over renovations at its headquarters. Jerome Powell responded with a terse statement, rejecting the allegations outright and calling them a “pretext” rooted in dissatisfaction with the Fed’s interest-rate policy. Markets did not wait…

Why are we always looking for a dollar crash? From time to time, the same prediction resurfaces: the US dollar is about to collapse. Sometimes it is because of debt. Sometimes deficits. Sometimes geopolitics. Occasionally, astrology. Sometimes, the forecast escalates quickly from a weaker dollar to the collapse of America itself. Lately, a number of…

This framework emerged during a recent conversation with a new partner, one of those discussions that begins with portfolio construction and quietly drifts into philosophy, usually without anyone quite noticing when the transition happens. It struck me that investors tend to fall into two broad camps: the physicist and the biologist. The physicist believes markets…