My latest piece on the US dollar without all the technical jargon or complicated charts has just been published in The Armchair Trader newsletter. Established in 2010, The Armchair Trader is a UK-based financial publication known for its independent commentary on global markets, covering stocks, commodities, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, and derivatives.
Here is a section:
Come on, there is nothing wrong with questioning the dollar’s long-term prospects. I have been doing that since 2001. Be careful what you wish for. A genuinely collapsing dollar would be a global financial event, not a marketing opportunity. I suspect many of those cheering for it have not really thought through what they are actually cheering for.
The world has continued to use the US dollar not because America is perfect, but because the alternatives have often been less attractive. If the question is whether the dollar retains its safe-haven appeal during periods of crisis, the answer appears to be yes. Despite years of predictions about its demise, investors still seem remarkably willing to embrace the greenback whenever things get messy.
The structural concerns I wrote about in 2001 were real, and the dollar still went on to enjoy stretches of strength. I have been hearing predictions of its imminent demise for so long that the dollar may eventually outlive some of the forecasters.
So, where do I actually stand 25 years on? My position has changed less than many people might expect. I continue to watch the deficits, debt levels and long-term trends, but experience has taught me not to underestimate the resilience of the dollar and the financial system behind it.