The 30-year Treasury yield topped 5.1% on Friday, the highest in nearly a year. The long bond jumped almost 11 basis points to 5.121%, while the 10-year surged nearly 14 basis points to 4.595%. Not exactly a small move, unless you have been meditating in a cave without Bloomberg access.
Had an interesting conversation with a broker this morning. We exchanged views on positioning, talked through the recent moves in precious metals, and covered the usual territory. Plenty of material to keep market participants entertained, confused, or both.
The bond market is not whispering anymore. When the long end moves like this, it does not stay in its lane. It reprices everything that competes with yield.
In conditions like these, the hardest decision is often the simplest one. There is no universally correct answer. There is only the one that matches your time horizon, your conviction, and honestly, your tolerance for sitting still while things look uncomfortable.
Markets reward composure more often than they reward speed. They just do not make it easy to remember that when everything is moving at once.