I picked up this latest commentary from a partner while rushing to a meeting, proof that markets have an excellent sense of timing, and not always a helpful one.
Here is a section:
The digital asset markets have delivered yet another year of profound contrasts, one that tested convictions while reinforcing the sector’s long-term trajectory. Bitcoin began the year with explosive momentum, surging past $100,000 in the opening days amid post-halving optimism, record ETF inflows, and a decidedly pro-crypto shift in US policy under the new Trump administration.
Institutional demand was relentless through the first three quarters with spot Bitcoin ETFs alone attracting tens of billions in fresh capital, pushing the total market capitalisation toward $4 trillion and driving Bitcoin to intraday highs above $125,000 by early October.
This rally was underpinned by meaningful structural progress: the establishment of a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve via executive order, bipartisan advancement of market-structure legislation like the GENIUS Act and accelerating corporate adoption as treasuries and sovereign entities alike recognised Bitcoin’s role as a scarce, non-sovereign store of value.
Yet the fourth quarter brought a sharp and, some would say, necessary reset. Overleveraged positions unravelled amid fading macro liquidity expectations, tariff-related uncertainty, and a broader risk-off environment that saw cascading liquidations wipe over $1 trillion from the market capitalisation of crypto assets in weeks.
Bitcoin retraced more than 35% from its recent all-time high, closing the year 6.3% lower, its first annual decline since 2022 while volatility spiked to levels not seen since the prior bear market lows. This painful deleveraging, however, has cleared excesses and laid a healthier foundation.