Global investors have responded in classic fashion, shifting into “risk-off” mode, rotating toward the perceived safe havens of gold, the US dollar and the Swiss franc as war returns to the Middle East. Escalation, rather than de-escalation, currently appears the more probable path, with no ceasefire in sight.
These developments add another layer of uncertainty to what was already a choppy environment. Global equities, already wrestling with AI disruption fears and ever-evolving tariff policies, must now contend with the prospect of higher oil prices, renewed supply chain stress, and the risk of stickier inflation.
We read the same news, panic at the same time, press the same buy or sell buttons and somehow convince ourselves it is independent thinking. I am not downplaying the gravity of war. However as investors, our mandate remains the same: preserve capital, manage risk, and identify opportunity amid uncertainty. Markets do not wait for perfect clarity, they reprice in real time.
I have sent brief notes to several partners outlining our perspective and positioning. A number of calls are also scheduled. In volatile periods, communication matters not because we can predict headlines but because discipline must outlast them.
History reminds us that markets tend to overreact first and recalibrate later. Our job is not to react emotionally with them. No midnight calls please.
We are here to navigate and yes, ultimately, to make money.