Why are we always looking for a dollar crash?
From time to time, the same prediction resurfaces: the US dollar is about to collapse. Sometimes it is because of debt. Sometimes deficits. Sometimes geopolitics. Occasionally, astrology. Sometimes, the forecast escalates quickly from a weaker dollar to the collapse of America itself.
Lately, a number of clients have reached out to me (again), worried about the dollar’s fate especially after its weak performance in 2025. The concern is understandable. When something underperforms, the leap from “weak” to “broken” is a very human one.
Add in a steady stream of scary, highly confident predictions from TikTok and YouTube, and it is not hard to see how “weakness” quickly becomes “doom”. So I’m curious and this is a genuine question for fellow investors and partners. Why do we keep looking for a dollar crash ah?
Is it because it makes for a compelling macro narrative? We have been hearing it for so very long that it feels inevitable? It helps justify hedges, gold, crypto, or “just-in-case” trades? It worked once in a textbook or a historical episode?
I would love to hear your thoughts please. How do you think about dollar risk? Do you position for tail events or just manage around them? Has the “US dollar crash” or “America is finished” narrative helped or hurt your investing over the years?
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