What a feeling! The first quarter of 2024 is in the books officially. The first three months of the year wrapped up with a strong performance across the markets. Stocks, ranging from domestic to foreign and covering both large and small companies, saw notable gains. My critics have been refuted, evident in the sector rotation, underscoring the market resilience. Sweet!
The bond market, which initially faced some challenges earlier in the year, managed to stabilize. Commodities witnessed a significant upswing while Bitcoin maintained its momentum, surging +64% during the quarter. Having started trading on January 11, the iShares Bitcoin ETF rose +52%.
Thinking of buying a gold necklace for your spouse? Gold traded higher, increasing attention on the market stage. Price the yellow metal in other currencies, such as the Japanese yen, and the upward thrust appears even more dramatic.
In the forex, the US dollar index gained +3.1%. The greenback’s value has increased by almost +10% since the last market low. In the face of dollar strength, commodities more than held their own. The underperformance of REITs was mitigated by the moderate increase in interest rates.
According to a Bloomberg story, JP Morgan warned investors about the risk of being caught on the wrong side of the momentum trade once it starts to weaken, emphasizing the potential for significant losses from a sudden reversal of momentum. Well, place your bets accordingly given the their track record on US stock market predictions.
With positive data emerging from China and a favorable report on the Fed’s preferred price gauge last week, attention now turns to a deluge of top-tier US data scheduled for release this week. I remain unconvinced that the data like a robust read on the US jobs market will change the current outlook regardless of how much the goodies are already in the price. I have got my eyes trained on several trades with significant upside potential.
Before I click the send button for this post, the US dollar is expected to remain firm against most major and emerging market currencies in the short-term.