Oil prices have cooled a bit in recent months so can the black gold do better or not going into 2024? We can never be sure. The market can take you for a ride sometimes. We have a trading exposure to oil for certain positions. I see the oil market in the middle of a healing process.
On another note, in this part of the world where I live and work, EVs are expensive vehicles for most people. There are challenges in terms of infrastructure too. This article from oilprice.com may be of interest.
Here is a section:
JP Morgan has forecast an average price for Brent crude of USD83 per barrel next year amid a stable market. The forecast is based on the analysts’ expectations of resilient demand for oil in the United States, strong demand growth in emerging markets, and stability in European markets.
For 2025, JP Morgan analysts said they expected an average Brent crude price of USD75 per barrel. As with many others, the forecast is based on expectations of substantial energy efficiency gains and growth in EV sales at the expense of internal combustion engine vehicles, leading to lower demand for fuels.
At the same time, the bank also expects a weakening of jet fuel demand after the recent surge. “Despite sustained economic headwinds, we see demand underpinned by robust EM, resilient US and weak but stable Europe,” the bank’s analysts wrote.
“Demand composition will likely flip, with two-thirds of demand gains set to come from the overall economic expansion, while continued normalization of jet fuel would contribute the rest.”
On the supply side, JP Morgan expects growth in non-OPEC production, which could undermine the cartel’s efforts to keep prices above a certain level. If non-OPEC supply growth is strong enough, it could push Brent below USD70 per barrel.
In this context, JP Morgan’s analysts said they expected OPEC+ to keep the lid on production to support prices.