I know some people don’t like the the yearly market outlook pieces everyone puts out, but at the very least it gives you consensus perspectives on what market participants expect ahead. If you are looking for some positive yearly outlook pieces from Wall Street, this article from CNBC should brighten up your day hopefully. Yeah, some people always think of Goldman Sachs as a collection of the smartest people in the room.
Here is a section:
Goldman Sachs predicts the global economy will top expectations in 2024, driven by strong income growth and confidence that the worst of rate hikes is already over. The investment bank forecasts the world economy to expand 2.6% next year on an annual average basis, above the 2.1% consensus forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg.
The US is expected to outpace other developed markets again with estimated growth of 2.1%, Goldman said. Goldman also believes that the bulk of the drag from monetary and fiscal tightening policies is over.
Policymakers in developed markets are unlikely to cut interest rates before the second half of 2024 unless economic growth comes in weaker than estimated. The bank noted inflation has also continued to cool across G10 and emerging market economies, and is expected to ease further.
“Our economists forecast this year’s decline in inflation to continue in 2024: sequential core inflation is predicted to fall from 3% now to an average 2-2.5% range across the G10 (excluding Japan),” the report stated.
The investment bank also expects global factory activity to recover from a recent slump as headwinds are set to dissipate this year. Manufacturing activity should recover somewhat in 2024 from a subdued 2023 pace, Goldman economists led by chief economist Jan Hatzius said, especially as “spending patterns normalize, gas-intensive European production finds a trough, and inventories-to-GDP ratios stabilize.”